The European Commission and the EU27 have been working to increase the level of protection of social security entitlements provided by the EU contingency regulation in a no deal Brexit. This includes a unilateral coordinated contingency approach to be applied to all insured persons whose entitlements relate to the United Kingdom before the withdrawal date. Beyond this, the EU27 Member States can choose to unilaterally apply the principle of aggregation to periods of work, insurance and residence in the United Kingdom after the withdrawal or to take further unilateral measures. Based on input from Member States, the Commission has put together an overview of national measures in the area of social security coordination (PDF).
With regard to Slovenia, in brief, the country will continue to guarantee rights currently regulated within the social security coordination until the end of 2020. The rights will be granted to the UK nationals under the condition of reciprocity. Answers to specific questions are shown below, and remember that these are in the event of a no deal Brexit:
Will old-age pensions based on pre-withdrawal periods continue to be exported to the UK? Yes.
Will existing EU rules continue to be applied to reimbursement requests* pending on withdrawal date? (*By Slovenia towards the UK, concerning healthcare costs or costs related to unemployment benefits for frontier workers.) Yes.
Will existing EU rules continue to be applied to post-withdrawal reimbursement requests* for costs for pre-withdrawal medical treatments? (*New claims involving the UK and dealt with Slovenia.) Yes.
Will existing EU rules continue to be applied to costs for planned/necessary medical treatment ongoing on withdrawal date and that could not be interrupted? Yes.
Will existing EU rules continue to be applied to post-withdrawal reimbursement requests for unemployment benefits provided by the UK pre-withdrawal to UK-residing frontier workers working in an EU27 Member State? Yes.
Will it be possible to export cash benefits to the UK (other than old-age pensions) that are based on pre- withdrawal situations? (a) sickness, (b) maternity/paternity, (c) invalidity, (d) survivors’, (e) accidents at work and occupational diseases, (f) unemployment, (g) pre-retirement, (h) family benefits. Yes, for all pensions. Other benefits during the grace period (until the end of 2020) and under the reciprocity principle.
Will a UK insured person residing in Slovenia still be provided with healthcare on the same conditions as EU citizens? If not, under what conditions? Yes, if they join the national healthcare scheme, and you can read the British Embassy’s guidance on healthcare cover if the UK leaves the EU without a deal here.
Under what conditions will UK nationals lawfully resident in Slovenia enjoy social security benefits under national law? The same as nationals during the grace period (until the end of 2020).
For pension purposes, will you continue to take into account (aggregate) post-withdrawal periods of insurance, work or residence in the UK? Yes, during the grace period (until the end of 2020).
For more information on Brexit, the best sources are the official sources. The Slovenian government has it’ own site (in English) on Brexit here, while the British Embassy’s current advice can be found here, you can sign up for email alerts here, and follow the Ambassador and her team on Facebook. All our posts on Brexit are here.
The covers and editorials from leading weeklies of the Left and Right for the work-week ending Friday, 14 June 2019
Mladina: New EU Core Emerging Post-Brexit, Slovenia Should Optimise Its Position
STA, 14 June 2019 - The left-leaning weekly paper Mladina argues on Friday that the EU will in fact breathe much more easily without Great Britain. New constellations are likely to emerge in the wake of its departure and Slovenia should make sure to be among the core EU countries that take a step forward integration and policy-wise, editor-in-chief Grega Repovž says.
It actually looks like optimism is making a comeback in political analytical centres in the EU's capitals after a long time, Repovž says, arguing Europe will simply become a much more flexible alliance without Great Britain.
He speaks of signs that a two-tier EU is emerging, with the second tier involving Eastern European countries - an exception being Slovenia as a member of the eurozone.
The eurozone is looking like a bypass that can "enable most normal European countries to start pursuing more serious policies which are blocked today in particular by Eastern European nationalist and backward populists".
Slovenia is being referred to as a part of this emerging coalition, as part of what is being called the EU's core, "but the question is whether our government is aware of this", Repovž says in Core of Europe In the Making.
Slovenia should optimise its position and have an influence on the agenda of this coalition, which is why Prime Minister Marjan Šarec, who has no serious diplomats or experienced international analysts among his ranks, needs to move fast and form a strong team around him.
"Why are we warning about this? In order to avoid hearing excuses again in a few years about how it was only possible to implement what was received in e-mails from Brussels and Berlin and to not feel embarrassed about the amateurs we had in power when the future was being designed," Repovž says, invoking the example of the 2013 bank bailout.
Demokracija: Interior Minister Should Resign Over Illegal Migration
STA, 13 June 2019 - The right-wing weekly Demokracija calls on Interior Minister Boštjan Poklukar to resign for being unable to provide for security of locals in border areas, listing several cases of unpleasant encounters between illegal migrants and locals, including a recent incident involving an 11-year-old girl.
Editor-in-chief Jože Biščak says on Thursday Poklukar bragged about the Slovenian police having successfully provided for security at the recent Three Seas Initiative summit.
"When the high-profile guests were adopting the closing Ljubljana Declaration to set up an investment fund ..., a drama was almost simultaneously unfolding on a bridge over the river Reka."
An 11-year-old was crossing it by bike in the area of Ilirska Bistrica in the south-west when she heard voices under the bridge, and stopped.
A group of men then started yelling and throwing stones at her, with one stone hitting her hand. Her parents reported the incident to the police, Biščak recalls.
The majority of police officers were protecting well-mannered Three Seas Initiative guests, "while the southern border remains full of holes like Swiss cheese".
If border control was stricter and better and if legislation was more in favour of Slovenians than foreigners, the illegal migrants would not have come that far into Slovenian territory, they would have been intercepted on the border and swiftly returned where they came from, to Croatia, Bosnia and further to the Arab world.
Biščak says the girl, a recently abducted pensioner, a wine grower whose van was stolen from his courtyard or any other person whose property has been destroyed by illegals would find it hard to agree with Poklukar that the police is in control of the situation.
What happened in Western Europe, is now starting to happen in Slovenia - while it began with small thefts and fights, today those who came to Europe a few years ago are claiming entire areas where they enforce their religion-based rules and where the police does not dare to go any more.
Biščak says such areas, controlled by Muslims and ruled by Sharia law, could well emerge in Slovenia, adding "Islam is not a religion, it is a spiritual, judicial and political system, and is not compatible with any western democracy".
While some countries such as Italy and Hungary have managed to secure their border against illegals, the Slovenian government has proved completely incapable of taking action.
STA, 16 May 2019 - Most parties and lists running in the European Parliament election except for the more radical players do not see Brexit as a positive development. They however point to different reasons for the British leaving the EU.
The coalition Modern Centre Party (SMC) told the STA Brexit was a negative decision for all and that the EU and UK would continue to cooperate closely in the medium run, at least in the most important fields of common interest.
The Social Democrats (SD) said that there was still a possibility that there will be no Brexit, and that if it happened, it was in everybody's interest that the procedure be carried out responsibly.
It added that exits from the EU and extremes could not be predicted, while being an obvious consequence of irresponsibility of populists and the danger they pose to Europe.
While no one knows what will happen with the UK, the EU needs to strengthen ties between the countries which are aware of the benefits of membership, while at the same time effectively responding to pressing issues, said the Pensioners' Party (DeSUS).
The coalition Alenka Bratušek Party (SAB) believes that Brexit is a warning for everybody that elections are important. Many people in the UK, especially the young, would like to go back in time and cast their votes in the Brexit referendum.
The ruling Marjan Šarec List (LMŠ) warned that the consequences of Brexit on the flow of goods, services, capital and workforce will be felt both by citizens and companies.
The prime minister's party is convinced that Brexit will be a lesson for the entire EU and that no other member state will decide to leave the bloc.
The minority coalition's partner in the opposition, the Left, argues that the UK has been taken away from the EU by right-wing populism. This is a signal for EU citizens that they are not able to decide on the fate of their own countries.
According to the party, this blow to democracy has triggered a wave of Euroscepticism which will not subside until the EU becomes democratic.
The opposition Democrats (SDS) and non-parliamentary People's Party (SLS), which are fielding a joint list, believe that the consequences of Brexit will depend on its final form and the duration of the transitional period.
The parties think that no other EU member state would decide to exit the bloc at the moment, as trust in the EU is at the highest level since 1983.
The opposition New Slovenia (NSi) said that the British have "jumped into an empty swimming pool" and that it did not believe a full Brexit will take place.
If the political elite is not able to decide, they should let the people decide one more time, as they are now acquainted with the consequences, the party added.
The far-right National Party (SNS) believes that Brexit has failed to strengthen the unity of the EU, but has shown that the EU does not know what it wants and that it is not able to solve this issue.
"Brussels is buying time and making London make decisions, while London is waiting for the EU to make a move," said the SNS, which sees some other member state leaving as a possibility and suggests Slovenia should think about this option.
Slovenia leaving the EU is also being proposed by the non-parliamentary United Slovenia (ZSi), which argues that Brexit is a nice example of how interests of corporations outweigh referendum decisions of the people.
Brexit has been blocked so that the will expressed by the British does not become an example for other countries, the party said, calling for "Sloexit" due to violations of fundamental human rights in the EU.
The Homeland League (DOM) believes that Brexit is a "symptom of the EU's illness". Leaving the EU is the country representing 20% of GDP of the EU, the strongest member military-wise and the oldest democracy, the party noted.
Good State (DD) argues that Europeans have obviously forgotten that the EU is a guarantor of political stability.
The Let's Connect list believes that Brexit is a "national and European disaster and a consequence of the decades of demagoguery of the British governments, which have blamed Brussels for their own incompetence".
The Greens think that Brexit will have a negative impact both on the EU and the UK and hope for a second referendum, which would save the younger generation in the UK which strongly opposes Brexit.
STA, 28 April 2019 - Slovenia is seen as a stable, constructive and pro-European country which however does not fully use the potential it could to play the role a small country can play in the EU, Slovenia's former European Commissioner Janez Potočnik has told the STA ahead of the 15th anniversary of the country's EU accession.
"We don't use to the fullest the role small and less exposed countries can play in the EU and we're also not among those which would attract attention with acts which are not in line with European values."
Since joining the EU on 1 May 2004, Slovenia has achieved a lot of what it had aspired to, and many of these things are now taken for granted, says Potočnik, who now co-chairs the UN International Resource Panel.
As Slovenia's chief negotiator in accession talks with the EU, Potočnik looks back at the process of negotiations with satisfaction.
"The unity we managed to build was genuine and convincing. It wouldn't be realistic to expect something similar now, as the clear goals uniting us are no longer there."
Nevertheless, there are too many disagreements and divisions, says Potočnik, who first served as research commissioner and then as environment commissiner in the 2004-2014 period.
It sometimes seems as if Slovenia artificially creats problems to fuel divisions, which Potočnik says are in the interest of those who do not have enough knowledge and strength to address complex challenges of the times we live in.
While he is happy Slovenians are still well aware of the advantages of EU membership, he is worried that some are too much focussed on the past, which is interpreted to one's liking, which prevents Slovenia to close ranks and take a step forward stronger.
"I miss strategic reflections and more focus on the problems which are really important for our future and on which we should really reach a compromise.
"I'm also worried about the divisions surrounding the migration issues and even whether it is sensible to be part of European organisations."
For him, Slovenia's major challenge, especially with a view to its EU presidency in 2021, is the same as for the EU and the world - a transition to an economically, socially and environmentally sustainable economy.
"This should undoubtedly become the priority of our EU presidency. If it doesn't, we'll send out a message ... that we don't understand what the key challenges of the EU and the world are and that we are a country which does not belong to the core of those in the EU pushing for a transition to the world we want, need and deserve."
The historic Big Bang 2004 expansion of the EU has largely eliminated post-WWII historical divisions in Europe, but also taught us that democratic change does not come with administrative measures and by formally adjusting to EU law, says Potočnik.
"It takes time and hard work to overcome development mistakes from the past and the interests surrounding them. EU membership is an important factor of democratic stabilisation but does not protect us from fully from our own mistakes."
Looking at the prospects of new rounds of enlargement, Potočnik says the EU is currently actually shrinking, while there is little going on enlargement-wise.
He points to Brexit, saying it is a sad event, especially because we live in a time which calls for deepening cooperation.
While he admits there are several reasons for the EU being busy dealing with itself rather than focussing on enlargement, such as migrations, security and bad experiences with some of the countries joining the bloc in 2004, Potočnik says it is still not acceptable Europe's stability depends on the stability of the Balkans.
He believes the recent name change agreement between Greece and North Macedonia should be used to "actively revive the enlargement process".
Also, Slovenia and Croatia should resolve the border issue on the basis of the legally binding arbitration agreement, which he says is a much easier problem to solve than some other issues in the region.
Potočnik also hopes the environment and sustainability in general will come to the forefront of this year's campaigning for the elections to the European Parliament.
Slovenia is dealing with climate change, yet not well enough, he says, adding the issue should have played a more prominent role during the 2018 campaign for Slovenia's general election.
Given that Potočnik has served two terms as European commissioner, his name has come up for the new make-up of the European Commission due later this year.
He says he would think it over if offered the post, but adds that he has not discussed it with Prime Minister Marjan Šarec or anyone else.
STA, 11 April 2019 - Participants of panel on Brexit hosted by the British-Slovenian Chamber of Commerce agreed on Thursday that the deadline extension means more time for the best possible solution, meaning one based on a deal.
British Ambassador to Slovenia Sophie Honey believes the extension of Brexit until 31 October does not mean a prolongation of uncertainty but more time for the best possible approach.
UK Trade Commissioner for Europe Andrew Mitchell highlighted the close trade ties between the UK and the EU, pointing out trade with EU countries accounted for more than half of Britain's foreign trade last year.
He said a no-deal Brexit would have substantial consequences for the economy and agreed the extension provides an opportunity to reach a deal and enable the firm economic ties to be preserved in the future.
The UK wants a detailed free trade agreement with the EU that would cover customs and regulatory cooperation so as to allow companies to continue to trade in a similar fashion they are doing now, Mitchell said.
As for the Brexit-related developments in the British parliament, Honey spoke of the biggest challenge for the government in several generations, while Mitchell believes time will show that this was the "most profound democratic exercise".
Honey stressed on the sidelines of the event that the UK has been part of the EU for 45 years. EU membership touches on practically all facets of life, while the referendum result was 52% vs 48%, which is why she feels it is normal that an extensive discussion is under way now in the UK.
The uncertainty regarding future relations has so far not shown in the trade between the UK and Slovenia - Slovenian exports rose by 11% last year, while imports from the UK were up 15%.
However, similar growth should not be expected after Brexit, said the head of the Foreign Ministry sector for bilateral economy cooperation Iztok Grmek.
A number of companies who do business with the UK also attended the event, but they were left without concrete answers regarding what they can expect after Brexit.
One example is aircraft maintenance firm Adria Tehnika, whose key client is the British air carrier Easyjet.
"We participated in the transfer of a part of their fleet from the British to the Austrian registry last year, but part of the fleet remains registered in the British registry. The question is what this means in terms of customs duties and the license and whether we should seek a special license with the English registry," Adria Tehnika's commercial director Mirjana Tratnjek Čeh illustrated.
All out stories on Brexit are here
STA, 10 April 2019 - Prime Minister Marjan Šarec has expressed regret about the European Commission's lukewarm response to the media reports that Croatia had been behind the border arbitration scandal and that it had even tried to prevent the revelations from being published.
Arriving in Brussels on Wednesday for an EU summit dedicated to Brexit, Šarec said he had expected the Commission call for respect for the rule of law and declare pressure on the media unacceptable, in particular when they came from a neighbour country.
Šarec also commented on criticism at home that he was trying to create a state of emergency ahead of the EU elections. "There's no state of emergency. We have responded to the pressure, we've convened the National Security Council because there was a series of initiatives for that, and I find that's right."
"We cannot be humble all the time, turning the other cheek, we must speak out when things are wrong. We've done that too. This doesn't mean we're creating a state of emergency, there's no state of emergency," Šarec said.
The National Security Council met yesterday in the wake of a report by the commercial broadcaster POP TV that an intermediary working on behalf of the Croatian government had sought to prevent its news portal from running a story last week proving that the Croatian intelligence agency was responsible for intercepting the phone calls between Slovenia's judge and agent in the border arbitration in July 2015, which Croatia used as an excuse to withdraw from the arbitration process.
He said that it was a perfectly justified reaction to summon the Slovenian ambassador to Croatia to come to Ljubljana to explain the situation, and to summon the Croatian ambassador for talks, which was to show Slovenia as a sovereign country with its own position.
"If in the past our leaders were too servile, I cannot help it. I act the way I think is right," he said.
Asked whether he planned to discuss the matter with his Croatian counterpart Andrej Plenković and EU leaders, Šarec said that he always exchanged a few words with Plenković at the summit and that they would also have a word at the summit of China and 16 central and east European countries in Croatia's Split on Thursday.
"As far as I know Croatian journalists have joined in the protest against such interference in the media," Šarec said, referring to the Trade Union of Croatian Journalists backing the Slovenian Journalists' Association in condemning the pressure on POP TV.
Provided an opportunity, Šarec plans to have a word about the issue with Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker, but he does not believe he will get any other answer from the one already issued by the Commission. "The time has obviously come for elections and for change," he said.
Šarec will tell Plenković that the rule of law must be observed and that pressure on the media is unacceptable, he said. "We expect Croatia to refrain from such acts, to implement the arbitration award as soon as possible, and to stop with the practice that is not in Slovenia's or Croatia's interests."
The European Commission did not wish to comment on the revelations yesterday, saying this was a bilateral affair. The Commission reacted in a similar way the day before when asked to comment on Hungary's protest over the cover of the Mladina magazine portraying the Hungarian PM.
STA, 10 April 2019 - Slovenia continues to support as short a delay of Brexit as possible, Prime Minister Marjan Šarec said as he arrived for the latest EU's Brexit summit in Brussels on Wednesday. We fear that Britain, should it hold the EU election and stay a member, would not be constructive, he said.
"You know how it is in politics. There are no guarantees in politics. All these safeguards to be adopted potentially can only be political. Should for instance a change of power occur in Great Britain, we have no way of knowing who comes after Theresa May and how they would behave," the Slovenian PM said in his doorstep statement.
He reiterated that what mattered most was not Britain but how the EU will function. "In case a blockade occurred, if we found ourselves in a situation where the institutions are blocked, we'd be in serious trouble."
Šarec does not know what to expect from tonight's developments, arguing that "Theresa May arrives each time to explain things while she brings nothing new to put on the table".
All our stories on Slovenia and Brexit are here
STA, 9 April 2019 - Foreign Minister Miro Cerar and his visiting Spanish counterpart Josep Borrell supported an orderly Brexit as the best option after talks in Ljubljana on Tuesday, indicating they were not opposed to another delay. The pair expressed their countries' mutual interest in a further enhancement of bilateral ties.
"A no-deal Brexit is not desired but it's not a horror," the Spanish minister told a joint press conference in response to a question by a Spanish journalist whether he would prefer a horrible end to Brexit or an eternal horror.
He added that he did not find another Brexit extension a horror because it would not be infinite, and that "Brexit will have an end."
Cerar agreed that everyone favoured a Brexit based on a deal. "Should there be a no-deal Brexit, Slovenia will be ready for it, although we don't want it, because a consensual path is the better path," he said.
Slovenia can understand the UK's desire to delay Brexit, but it is necessary to ensure a stable and efficient functioning of EU institutions in the future, Cerar said, adding that extending the Brexit deadline would be sensible unless it led to a crisis of EU institutions, thus harming the UK and the rest of the EU.
"The 27-nation bloc cannot become hostage to the United Kingdom because of their uncertainty, that is a situation in which they don't see yet how to implement Brexit in a right way," Cerar said.
Današnji obisk MZZ Španije @JosepBorrellF dodatno utrjuje prijateljske odnose med ?? in ??. Ohraniti želimo pozitiven trend krepitve gospodarske rasti in nadaljno rast turistične izmenjave. @MZZRS @SLOinESP pic.twitter.com/R8Dsl5x3l5— dr. Miro Cerar (@MiroCerar) April 9, 2019
Cerar said he and Borrell agreed it was important for the EU to remain united, closely integrated and that EU member countries continue to cooperate well with each other.
This is why it is important to have a good turnout in the EU elections, to tell people it is important to live together and that there is a desire to prevent divisive forces from prevailing, in order to preserve peace for the future generations.
The ministers also called for strengthening further what they said was already a good bilateral relationship between their countries. Cerar said Slovenia was keen to preserve a positive trend of trade seen in 2017 and 2018, when the volume of merchandise trade reached 1.2 billion euro.
They also hailed a strengthening of tourism exchange between the two countries and the fact that Slovenia was a popular destination for Spanish Erasmus exchange students and Spain ranked as the most popular destination for Slovenian students.
Borrell thanked Slovenia for understanding over the Catalonia issue.
Asked about the trial of the imprisoned independence leaders, he said it was not a political process but a trial of the politicians who had responsibilities. "They may have a responsibility of a criminal nature, but it is up to judges to decide."
Cerar said that Slovenia was following the developments and that the procedures must be conducted in accordance with Spanish legislation and the rule of law. "It's an internal affair of the Spanish judiciary that we cannot interfere in, although we wish for a conclusion," Cerar said.
Catalonia's expectations for more independence were also one of the topics discussed as Borrell was received by President Borut Pahor.
Borrell presented the current situation in Spain before the upcoming early elections and the government's efforts for dialogue, Pahor's office said in a press release.
Other topics included the excellent and friendly bilateral relations, as well as the EU and Brexit, and the situation in the Western Balkans.
The pair shared a view that the EU should be strengthened so that it can provide for security, progress and welfare.
Pahor hopes May's EU election result will enable the European Parliament to form a strong and pro-European coalition willing to face up to future challenges.
He reiterated his view that these will be the most important elections to the European Parliament since they were first held in 1979.
Pahor also told Borrell he was in favour of an orderly Brexit to minimise negative consequences for the citizens and economies of both countries.
The pair exchanged views on the EU prospects of the Western Balkans and potential incentives for the region to continue with reforms despite a slowdown in enlargement.
Pahor reiterated his view the enlargement should be seen as a geopolitical question rather than a technical issue.
Brexit znova odložen
Brexit postponed again
Written by Sonja Merljak Zdovc, translated by JL Flanner & G Translate
Se spomniš brexita?
Do you remember Brexit?
To je tisti referendum, na katerem so volivci v Veliki Britaniji odločili, da ne želijo biti več del Evropske unije.
This is the referendum in which voters in the UK decided that they did not want to be part of the European Union anymore.
Takrat je veljalo, da bodo Evropsko unijo zapustili 29. marca letos. Toda bolj ko se je bližal ta datum, bolj je kazalo, da iz te moke ne bo kruha.
Then it was said that the UK would leave the European Union on March 29 this year. But the closer it came to this date, the more it seemed that there would be “no bread from this flour”. [Idiom: nothing would come from this].
Kaj se bo zgodilo v prihodnjih dneh z britanskim izstopom iz Evropske unije, ne ve nihče. Poslanci so doslej zavrnili še vse predloge britanske vlade.
Nobody knows what will happen in the coming days with Britain’s exit from the European Union. [British] MPs have so far rejected all proposals by the British government.
Brexit naj bi se namesto 29. marca zgodil 12. aprila.
Brexit is due to happen on April 29th instead of March 29th.
A premierka Theresa May je znova zaprosila za podaljšanje časa za izstop.
Prime Minister Theresa May again asked for an extension of the exit date.
Če Britanci ne bodo želeli sodelovati na evropskih volitvah, ki bodo med 23. in 26. majem, bodo morali poslanci sporazum o ločitvi Velike Britanije in Evropske unije potrditi še pred 22. majem.
If the British do not want to participate in the European elections of May 23-26, MPs will have to confirm the agreement on the separation of Great Britain and the European Union before May 22.
V zadnjem mesecu je sicer šest milijonov Britancev podpisalo peticijo, s katero želijo preklicati brexit.
In the past month, six million Britons signed a petition calling for Brexit to be cancelled.
STA, 22 March 2019 - The government macroeconomic think-thank has estimated that the direct impact of a no-deal Brexit on Slovenia would be small, while the indirect impact through the countries with which Slovenia does most of its trade would be greater but also harder to measure.
The Institute of Macroeconomic Analysis and Development (IMAD – Urad RS za makroekonomske analize in razvoj) has found based on various studies that the long-term effect of a no-deal Brexit on Slovenia would be between -0.2% and 1% of gross domestic product (GDP).
Meanwhile, the impact of an orderly exit of the UK from the EU would be smaller, estimated at between -0.1% and -0.25% of the country's GDP.
This would hold true in the case of the confirmation of the current Brexit agreement, which envisages the UK remaining part of the customs union, IMAD said in its latest publication on macroeconomic trends.
"Introduction of customs duties would decrease the volume of bilateral trade between Slovenia and the United Kingdom, with the electrical, automotive, pharmaceutical and metal industries suffering the largest negative effect."
According to the think-tank, also to be somewhat affected would be exports of services, in particular tourism and transport.
Since the direct connection of the Slovenian and British economies is relatively small (Slovenia generates 1.9% of its exports in the UK), the direct negative effect on exports and GDP would be small.
An indirect effect would be somewhat bigger due to Slovenia's trade connections with Germany and France, which are major trade partners of the UK.
All our stories about Brexit are here
STA, 21 March 2019 - Regardless of how Brexit unravels at the political level, the lives of British citizens in the EU and EU citizens in the UK may change. According to British Ambassador to Slovenia Sophie Honey, the Embassy and the Slovenian government are working together to provide continuity for the people and make it clear that they remain welcome.
In the event of a negotiated Brexit, measures are in place to ensure things run smoothly for the people in a transitional period until the end of 2020. In the event of a no-deal Brexit, the status of citizens in the respective countries will depend more on bilateral talks with each country, Slovenia included.
"While the nature of our relationship will change as and when the UK leaves the EU, all of our planning is focussed on trying to ensure that this change isn't felt so directly day-to-day. That's what our priority has been with the government here," Ambassador Honey said in an interview with the STA.
"That is why the commitments [the Slovenian government] have given to protect the status of British nationals here - are really important. And we continue to work through some of the key issues and make sure that we have everything in place."
The Slovenian government has now adopted a bill on reciprocal rights for British citizens residing in Slovenia, of whom there are around 700; about 5,000 Slovenians have made the UK their home.
Ambassador Honey says her Embassy has been "in very close touch with the Slovenian government" as well as the Slovenian Embassy in London. "I'm reassured that we've had a very similar approach and stance on this. Key to that has been a shared sense of the importance of continuity for our citizens, for people who have made their homes in each other's countries."
"This period is undoubtedly complicated, but I'm still optimistic about the future and everything that needs to be done so that cooperation continues," she said.
The Embassy has held a series of outreach events across Slovenia in recent weeks to talk to British nationals living here and address any issues and concerns they may have.
"We've been doing a lot of outreach in the British community to reassure people that both in the case of a deal or in the case of a no deal Brexit, they are still welcome here and the Slovenian government wants them to stay and to protect their rights."
"The Slovenian government has made clear - including now through legislation - that British people living in Slovenia would be entitled to stay and retain their status and be able to work and live here as previously."
Some concerns are very fundamental - others are more practical.
"Many people ask me: 'What's the stance of the Slovenian government towards us?' And I reassure them - all the messages I've received from the Slovenian government are that yes, the government welcomes the British community and wants to enable the people to stay and continue their lives here as until now."
At a more practical level, British people living in Slovenia have raised specific questions - for example about residency, driving licences, access to healthcare and pensions.
People have asked about access to pensions in the future as well as whether their access to healthcare remains the same.
For most of those who have temporary or permanent residence in Slovenia, their health insurance is covered by the employer.
For some people reliant on a special type of reciprocal cooperation within the EU called S1 forms, the details are still being worked out with the Slovenian government. Such people have been advised to check their cover and make sure they have at least basic cover, according to the ambassador.
Companies, meanwhile, are mostly interested what will happen so that they can plan for that and deal with it, but this is challenging. "It's difficult to tell businesses exactly what will happen. What we have tried to do is to explain the most likely scenarios."
Having talked to companies doing business in the UK, the Ambassador said she has seen a pragmatic determination to continue cooperation - businesses say they will find a way. There are very strong links that go many years back, and new opportunities ahead. Despite the potential change in conditions Slovenian companies are determined to continue doing business with the UK.
What will not change is that Slovenia and the UK have an overall "strong relationship that predates the time either of us were EU members and that will continue," according to the ambassador.
All our stories on Slovenia and Brexit are here