We often report on Slovenia’s demographics at TSN, with regard to an aging population, the growing proportion of immigrants, and so on, but how does the country compare with the rest of Europe when it comes to overall size and the next 30 years?
Using data from a variety of sources, Facts Maps has put together a clear map of the projected changes in population for 41 countries in Europe. For copyright reasons we’ll just embed a small version here, which you can then click on to see the full sized version.
This suggests that quite dramatic changes are set to take place in Slovenia over the next 30 years, with the country forecast to see a 23.18% fall in population, from 2.079 million in 2017 to just 1.597 million in 2050. These figures predict that Slovenia will see the 5th biggest fall in population, in percentage terms over the coming three decades, “beaten” only by Estonia (-29.41%), Latvia (-35.86%), Lithuania (-37.65%) and Moldova (-44.16%). Of the 41 countries listed, only 14 are projected to see a growth in population, headed by Luxembourg (+48.37%), Ireland (+33.04%) and Iceland (+21.49%). Interestingly, two of Slovenia’s neighbours are also expected to grow: Austria (+4.27%) and Italy (+3.47). Both Croatia and Hungary will see declines, of -7.73% and 12.66%, respectively.
What are the causes? Facts Maps doesn’t say, but one can image a falling birth rate (see Slovenia’s Population Falls for 2nd Year Running, with More Deaths than Births) and emigration, although with regard to the latter it should be noted that net migration remains positive in Slovenia (and non-Slovenes now represent 6.9% of the population).
Slovenia’s aging population 1971 - 1961, in graphic form - see more here
And what about the implications? A smaller population, and a smaller one of working age, in particular, will put pressure on the tax base of the country while spending on pensions and healthcare will rise (see Population Ageing & Shrinking Present Serious Problems for Slovenia’s Future). One the positive side, at least for some, housing prices could fall along with demand.