STA, 12 November 2018 - Prime Minister Marjan Šarec has told Marko Bandelli, the minister without portfolio in charge of development and EU cohesion funds, to resign or face dismissal over efforts to use his government clout to impact a local election. Reactions by the coalition parties indicate Bandelli would not survive a dismissal vote.

Šarec said he has warned Bandelli twice before about his communication, right after the government was appointed and then again a few weeks ago, when Bandelli came under fire for using emergency lights on his service vehicle. "Now I've decided he should leave."

Šarec and Bandelli met today after the story broke last week that Bandelli had threatened one of the candidates for the mayoral post in Komen (SW) with leaving the municipality without the support of his department and of the Infrastructure Ministry.

Both are controlled by the Alenka Bratušek Party (SAB), on whose slate Bandelli was elected the mayor of Komen in 2014 and earlier this year as MP, which meant he had to give up the mayoral post.

Bandelli, who left today's meeting with Šarec without a comment, had apologised for the September e-mail to Erik Modic, in which he accused the candidate of being driven merely by self-interest and a personal vendetta.

The apology was also highlighted in today's press release by SAB, whose leadership will meet to discuss the situation on Tuesday morning.

But Šarec said that neither the apology nor SAB's initial defence that mayors are used to a different style of communication was convincing. "It was also insulting to all current, past and perhaps future mayors," said Šarec, who used to serve as the mayor of Kamnik.

While the largest parliamentary party, the opposition Democrats (SDS) already threatened with a dismissal motion ahead of today's meeting, the first reaction by SAB's fellow junior coalition parties confirmed Bandelli would not survive a vote were he to hold on to the post.

The Modern Centre Party (SMC) welcomed Šarec's decision, arguing Bandelli had undermined trust in the government. In the case of vote, the SMC would back the dismissal, as would the Pensioners' Party (DeSUS) whose Karl Erjavec said he would have probably acted the same way as Šarec in such a situation.

Erjavec however indicated that the Komen e-mail had not been the sole reason for Šarec's decision. According to his knowledge, Bandelli also still owes the PM a report on the drawing of EU funds.

The SocDems, another junior coalition party, did not wish to comment on the situation today, but with the ruling Marjan Šarec List (LMŠ) naturally sharing the view of the prime minister, Bandelli's fate seems sealed.

"I'm convinced I did the right thing. We'll see what happens next," Šarec said.

Other issues with Bandelli’s communication style in local politics

The controversial correspondence was reportedly not an isolated case of the minister communicating inappropriately with a candidate in the Komen election.

Media also highlighted an October exchange on Facebook with Sergio Stancich, in which Bandelli expressed support for Stancich's rival candidate Dean Zalesjak, announcing the latter would "of course get maximum political support, know-how and ministerial information".

He later argued that he just highlighted the obvious fact that "mayors and municipal councillors of parties that are part of the government have easier access to ministers".

The news portal Siol reported last week that Bandelli erased his profiles on social networks last week.

In general, Bandelli appears to have not performed according to expectations, in particular now that the government has come under heavy pressure due to the poor drawing of EU funds.

Unofficial information obtained by the STA suggest Šarec demanded Bandelli that he present measures to improve the phasing of EU cohesion policy funds by last week, something the minister did not do.

But the demand that he resign also comes in the midst of rising tensions between Šarec and Brastušek, who recently requested a government debate about the realization of coalition priorities.

Her party attempting to take over the mantle of pensioner protection from the DeSUS, she said she would not rescind her demands for significantly higher pensions, even as the government faces demands from public sector unions that could run into several hundred million euro per year.

If Bandelli resigns or is dismissed, he will be allowed by law to return to the National Assembly as an MP.

All our local election stories are here

STA, 12 November - Slovenian voters will head to the polls on Sunday to elect mayors and local councils in 212 municipalities. Coming less than half a year after the general election, the vote will be closely watched for signs of shifting political sentiment, but the results are likely to make for a poor barometer of the political climate in the nation.

For well over a decade, local elections have been dominated by truly hyperlocal issues, and 2018 does not look any different. In fact, judging by the candidacies and the handful of polls carried out, the vote may simply affirm trends that have become entrenched in the last decade-plus.

For one, large parties that are established at the national level do not necessarily perform well in local elections, with two constant exceptions: the Democrats (SDS) on the right and the Social Democrats (SD) on the left.

The SDS has won the last three local elections in terms of the total share of the vote for local council, while the SD has been near the top, finishing third in 2014, second in 2010 and third in 2006.

In 2006, the second strongest party was the Liberal Democracy (LDS), which has since disappeared from the political map, and in 2014 the runner-up position went to the then newly established Miro Cerar Party, since then renamed the Modern Centre Party (SMC).

The People's Party (SLS) has always done well and finished in fourth place in the last three elections, a feat achieved in 2014 despite having just been ejected from the National Assembly in what was a major upset for the once major political player.

In terms of the number of mayors, the SLS has been the undisputed leader, having the highest number of mayors of any party even in 2014, seemingly regardless of its fluctuating fortunes on the national political arena.

Local politics in Slovenia is a rural affair

These results reflect Slovenia's low rate of urbanisation, which is among the lowest in Europe, and the fragmentation of local communities.

The vast majority of Slovenia's municipalities are rural. Only 11 of the 212 qualify as urban, and the smallest among them has only 17,000 inhabitants.

In small rural communities, conservative parties tend to do well, and because there are so many small municipalities, centre-right parties have an upper hand by default when it comes to the sheer number of mayors.

But even more importantly, there has been a surge in independent and semi-independent parties and local lists, which have come to dominate the fragmented local political landscape.

In 2006, 67 mayors were elected from independent local lists. The figure rose to 70 in 2010 before exploding to 115 in the last election in 2014; that year, the SDS won 14.3% of the vote and had 31 mayors as the strongest individual party.

The trend is similar when one looks at the number of local councillors elected. In absolute terms strong parties such as the SDS have the highest number of local councillors, but independents have been gaining ground.

Independents accounted for just under 20% of all councillors elected in 2006 but 22% in 2010 and over 29% in 2014. Additionally, a tenth of councillors in each of those years was elected on the slates of smaller national or regional parties.

Another major trend driving Slovenian local elections has been the advantage of incumbency, which has been accelerating.

A 2015 study of local elections in Slovenia revealed that the rate of re-election rose from 77% in 1998 to over 80% in 2006 and as high as 84% in 2014.

As of 2018, ten of the 212 mayors have been in office for almost 24 years and many more have been mayors since their municipalities were first established (municipalities were created in several rounds in 1995, 1998, 2006 and 2011).

The incumbency advantage is so large that in as many as 36 municipalities, there is a single candidate for mayor, 35 of them being incumbents.

One major source of uncertainty disrupting these trends is the Slovenian tradition, especially on the left, of the rapid creation of parties, some of which tend to burn down fairly quickly.

In 2011, for example, the party of Ljubljana Mayor Zoran Janković won 28% of the vote in the general election. But, unable to form a government, the party pretty much collapsed in time for the 2014 local election and won just 0.25% of the votes for local council.

In 2014, on the other hand, the newly established SMC profited from its win in the general election to finish second by the share of the local council vote. Nevertheless, it did not manage to get a single mayor elected despite fielding candidates in 40 municipalities.

This year, it is the prime minister's Marjan Šarec List (LMŠ) that is in a unique position. It finished as runner-up in the spring general election with 12.6% of the vote, half of what the election winner, the SDS, received, and then managed to put together a five-party coalition.

But the party has its roots as a local player in Kamnik, where Šarec served as two-term mayor, and it has not yet built up a network of local chapters, which are seen as key for any party planning to become a serious player at the local level.

The LMŠ plans to field candidates in just 40 municipalities while also backing several candidates of other parties.

Given these trends, it seems likely that the SDS, SD and SLS may once again emerge as the strongest parties in the nation-wide tally, but independents, especially incumbents, are just as likely to affirm or even extend their dominance.

In the end, the results will probably give many players a cause for celebration. Some will brag with the number of mayors and local councillors, others will celebrate their outsize influence at the local level, and some will be happy with anything short of disaster.

You can find our guides to all the main political parties here