Valicon's latest survey, carried out between 28 and 31 May among 2,255 respondents, sees most of the decided voters picking the Democrats (SDS) of Janez Janša, followed by the Social Democrats (SD; 13.6%) and the Marjan Šarec List (LMŠ; 12%).
The leading trio is followed by the Left (9.8%), Modern Centre Party (SMC; 9%), New Slovenia (7.9%), Pensioners' Party (DeSUS; 5.5%) and the Alenka Bratušek Party (5%), while the remaining parties are below the parliament threshold.
According to Zorko, it is impossible to predict the relative winner of the election based on the poll, but the most likely winner is the SDS. If the maximum reach is considered, the SD or LMŠ could also win the election.
Zorko believes that a turnaround at the top is unlikely, but notes that tactical voting is a possible scenario. The key is the one-fifth of the electorate who are decided but the probability that they will actually vote for the party they picked is under 75%.
This means that they could change their minds before Sunday, and if the election is attended by a million voters, this means 200,000 people who could turn the election result upside down.
Zorko has assessed that a majority of these voters are weighing between the SD and LMŠ, and a majority of their votes will be anti-Janša votes.
There are also many voters who are undecided or who could change their mind. Such voters voted for the SMC in 2014, and this time a part of them leans towards the SD, a part of them towards the LMŠ, while a part does not now whether to attend the election.
This is why the election will, in a way, be decided on Saturday at picnics, family meetings and social networks. The most probable surprises will be related to mobilisation in the final two days, and are possible both with parties at the top and parties on the verge of parliament.
It is impossible to predict how the "small" parties will fare in the election, as well as the turnout, which Zorko expects to stand at the level of the 2014 election (51.7%).